Bayesian Estimation of Epidemiological Models: Methods, Causality, and Policy Trade-Offs

Color Estimation Error Trade-offs

Digital imager sensor responses must be transformed to calibrated (human) color representations for display or print reproduction. Errors in these color rendering transformations can arise from a variety of sources, including (a) noise in the acquisition process (including photon noise and sensor noise) and (b) sensor spectral responsivities inconsistent with those of the human cones. These err...

Performance Trade-offs of Tcp Adaptation Methods

Complexity of Efficiency-Revenue Trade-offs in Bayesian Auctions

When agents with independent priors bid for a single item, Myerson’s optimal auction maximizes expected revenue, whereas Vickrey’s second-price auction optimizes social welfare. We address the natural question of trade-offs, auctions that optimize revenue without losing too much welfare, say. If one allows for randomized mechanisms, it is easy to see that there are polynomial-time mechanisms th...

Causality theory for policy uses of epidemiological measures

This paper provides an introduction to measures of causal effects and focuses on underlying conceptual models, definitions and drawbacks of special relevance to policy formulation based on epidemiological data. It begins by describing a foundation for critical analysis based on counterfactuals and potential outcomes. It then describes analyses based on hypothetical outcome removal and rejects t...

Adaptation and mitigation: trade-offs in substance and methods

Adaptation to climate change and mitigation of climate change are policy substitutes, as both reduce the impacts of climate change. Adaptation and mitigation should therefore be analysed together, as they indeed are, albeit in a rudimentary way, in cost-benefit analyses of emission abatement. However, adaptation and mitigation are done by different people operating at different spatial and temp...